Can AI Make Nuclear Arsenals Vulnerable? Why India, Pakistan And China Must Reassess Deterrence

Key points

• Nuclear deterrence relies on the expectation that a targeted state can retaliate after an attack.
• AI can enhance targeting capabilities, potentially threatening nuclear forces before they can be used.
• Dual-use military infrastructure complicates the interpretation of conventional strikes as threats to nuclear capabilities.
• The perception of vulnerability could lead to miscalculations and increased risks of escalation.
• South Asia's nuclear dynamics are influenced by technological advancements in surveillance and targeting.
• India, Pakistan, and China have different nuclear doctrines affecting their strategic calculations.